Pink Elephants Trinity

About Pink Elephants Trinity

Financial advisors continue to urge consumers to view sports wagering strictly as entertainment and to only risk funds they can afford to lose.

Research from Stanford University published in April concluded that sports bettors remain “overoptimistic,” generally expecting to break even despite losing an average of 7.5 cents on every dollar wagered.

“Overoptimism is largest among bettors who partake in a complex type of bet known as a parlay,” the Stanford researchers wrote. “Compared to other forms of betting, parlays are more likely to be driven by bias.”

What is Pink Elephants Trinity?

Following the decision, the odds of one additional rate hike this year jumped to 48% on Wednesday afternoon on Polymarket. The contract asks traders to predict whether the upper bound of the Fed Funds Rate will hit 4.25% by the end of 2026. There is now a 21% chance that the Fed will stand pat for the remainder of year, with a slightly lower probability that the upper bound will reach at least 4.5%.

According to Multiples.VC, the average enterprise multiple (EV/EBITDA) of top US-listed gaming companies is currently 10x. Data from New York University last updated in January pegged the overall market average at 23.9x and 19.7x among EBITDA-positive firms, suggesting the sector is undervalued relative to other industries. In a report released Monday, Fitch Ratings said most North American gaming companies hold “Stable” outlooks with “adequate rating headroom” despite consumer headwinds.

Macquarie’s Beynon agrees with that sentiment, pointing to the relative stability of gaming companies through tough economic stretches such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Bankruptcies in the sector have been low relative to the broader market, he notes, and both land-based and digital companies have reason for optimism moving forward.

About Pink Elephants Trinity

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.