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Some factions within the government, especially the Ministry of Finance, are resisting more drastic measures. The Ministry of Finance, responsible for regulating sports betting and online gaming, understands the sector’s importance to the economy. Finance Minister Dario Durigan’s difficulty lies in convincing Lula that a well-regulated activity is important for public finances. Lula has said, in line with critics of the sector, that if it were up to him, he would end betting in Brazil.

The president’s critical view of betting is on par with other candidates. Studies by the Workers’ Party (PT) indicate that three out of four Brazilians are against betting establishments. This is the president’s justification against the sector.

What the president didn’t address is the tax revenue from betting.

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Since the Supreme Court’s PASPA decision in 2018, there has been an uptick on harassment against athletes from bettors. The collection of incidents, in the view of the industry, is typically construed as both troubling and prevalent. Against a backdrop of alarming threats in numerous sports, perhaps the most disconcerting occurred at the hands of Benjamin “Parlay” Patz, a California bettor.

Approximately 15 months after the high court’s ruling, Patz sent a series of explicit messages to four members of MLB’s Tampa Bay Rays, threatening to “sever” their necks open. Accused by federal investigators of targeting more than 300 accounts of pro and college athletes, Patz pleaded guilty in 2021 to transmitting threats in interstate or foreign commerce. Although a judge ordered Patz to undergo mental health treatment and abstain from gambling, he did not sentence the bettor to prison.

Years later, former Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin convened a sports betting hearing in December 2024, the first federal hearing held on the subject in six years. Durbin, an Illinois Democrat, opened the hearing with an anecdote from March Madness the prior season. Despite recording a double-double in a win over Michigan State, former North Carolina center Armando Bacot received more than 100 threats on social media, Durbin told the committee. Bacot, who finished with 18 points and seven rebounds, drew the ire of bettors for missing the “over” on his rebound total.

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Handle analog is a metric used as a cleaner comparison between sportsbooks and prediction markets because the latter’s volume doesn’t compare evenly with sportsbook handle.

Based on its projections, EKG sees the overall sports wagering industry growing 8% year-over-year, outpacing the current baseline growth rate of 5% (a figure that strips out temporary boosts from the 2026 World Cup).

Assuming that 8% spurt is realized, it’d be impressive because since the end of the 2025 football season, only Missouri and Alberta, Canada joined the live and legal sports betting party with Arkansas opening to DraftKings and FanDuel earlier this year.