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Initial reaction from investors was largely unfavourable. Genius shares plunged 13% on 18 Sept., falling 17% for the week. The data provider closed the session at $5.64 per share, well below the $6.19 price when it announced the Legend acquisition in February.

The launch of Prediction.com comes amid a strategic integration phase following Genius Sports’ acquisition of Legend. 

It coincided with the beginning of the NFL season in the US, viewed as a peak commercial period for sports data monetisation. Genius also maintains partnerships with DraftKings and FanDuel, both of which signed extensions to remain as NFL partners ahead of this season.

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The company reported approximately £3.6 billion of net debt at the end of June, with reported leverage of 3.1x underlying EBITDA. Online underlying EBITDA fell 5% in the first half despite 7% growth in online net gaming revenue. The tax impact has been substantial.

The UK government increased Remote Gaming Duty (RGD) from 21% to 40% from 1 April. Then from April 2027, a new 25% General Betting Duty rate for remote betting will apply, although remote bets on UK horse racing are excluded from the new rate.

Entain said the higher RGD had a £56 million negative impact on first-half EBITDA. In Britain, operators are dealing with government policy and higher taxes. In America, the main threat is competition. The problems are different, but they hit the same group of stocks.

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The problem with time is that it always changes. There is never a way to stop the clock, no matter how much we wish it could happen. Ultimately, that means we all have to face new situations and challenges and prepare to be taken on new paths. However, each of those new paths is a chance to learn and grow, embracing all of the experience and knowledge that has been accumulated to forge a better future. It may be a little unnerving, not knowing which path to take and what the future may hold, but it has to be completely accepted for what it is – an opportunity that we have the ability to explore and nurture. 

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