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Initial reaction from investors was largely unfavourable. Genius shares plunged 13% on 18 Sept., falling 17% for the week. The data provider closed the session at $5.64 per share, well below the $6.19 price when it announced the Legend acquisition in February.

The launch of Prediction.com comes amid a strategic integration phase following Genius Sports’ acquisition of Legend. 

It coincided with the beginning of the NFL season in the US, viewed as a peak commercial period for sports data monetisation. Genius also maintains partnerships with DraftKings and FanDuel, both of which signed extensions to remain as NFL partners ahead of this season.

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Players typically play across various verticals, and by imposing restrictions on specific verticals or betting markets, engaged customers will look elsewhere to access these activities.

“If a customer finds black market sites that have all their preferred betting and gaming options, convenience dictates they will transfer a broad range of their expenditure there. Consumer recycling means that banning or restricting key products has a broader distortive impact on the entire market,” the report noted.

Notably for highly engaging verticals light online slots, if players are receiving a smaller-than-expected RTP (return to player), or bonuses have been restricted, they could again transition to an illegal offering where there are no such restrictions.

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Van Dijk also voiced his opinion that all gambling advertising should be banned, including for lotteries and land-based casinos.

He also questioned the government’s involvement with the state-owned entities Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij, especially in its assessment on how to limit gambling harms.

Holland Casino CEO Petra de Ruiter last week told iGB that she was proud of the player protection efforts in place across Holland Casino’s products.